Quote:
Originally Posted by PPP
You really need to look at this without tunnel vision, and see how cookies protect small affiliates and benefit them more. Still though, the ratios are probably close enough to just not matter.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PPP
it's a wash... not in terms of raw numbers, but in terms of the effect.
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Let's go back to Day one after creation of Poker Lust.
There are 100,000 potential players, looking for information.
Because of more power and money and SEO, PokerNewsTypeAffiliate (PNTA) gets 10,000 hits per day.
SmallStuffAffiliate (SSA) gets 300 hits per day.
On Day 2, what is the probability that a player coming to PokerNewsTypeAffiliate has actually already visited SmallStuff?
Umm, like maybe 300/100,000 or a very miniscule .003.
Only 3 out of every 1000 players interested in Poker will have already visited the Small Site.
So, on Day 2, out of the 10,000 visitors PNTA gets, the absolute highest ratio that could be coming from the small site would be 300/10,000
(and that would only occur if every single visitor to SSA came to PNTA).
So, for purposes of argument, lets say that PNTA has a
huge 30% conversion rate.
So, 30% of those 300 visitors are converted by PNTA, which means about 90 new signups.
*Except* those 90 sign-ups have SSA cookies, and will be going to the credit of the SmallStuff site.
Wow, that is a big loss to PNTA (sarcasm

)...especially since they converted 2,910 other players, at TWICE the CPA that SmallStuff gets:
2,910 X $200 = $582,000
Awww....poor PNTA.
BUT, in reality,
the odds of a player having visited SmallStuff first are only 300/100,000 which is .003...
and that means, that out of 10,000 visitors, we would only expect:
10,000 x .003 which = 30 visitors per 10,000 came from SmallStuff.
So, it is more likely that PNTA will convert 30% of 30 visitors from SmallStuff whom they will NOT get paid for: a whole 9 (nine) referral fees they will lose.
They will convert 2991 other visitors, for 2991 x $200 = $598,200
Hmm...they made $598,200 and got screwed for 9 x $200 = $1800 ....
and that just happens to amount to a whole .003 of their profits (.3%, which is less than 1% of their revenue)
No wonder they do not make a big deal about this stuff, and tell everyone it will all even out with the wash anyways.
They are doing just fine the way things are.
Now, on Day 2, about
300 visitors will come to SmallStuff site.
What is the probability that those 300 visitors will already have visited PNTA?
OK....10,000/100,000 or
10%.
Now, let's say that SmallStuff has the same huge conversion rate of 30% that the bigger, more powerful competitor has.....(unlikely)
300 x 30% = 90 Real Money Players.
Out of those 90 RMPs, we can expect that 10% of them will have visited the PNTA site first, and they will have their PNTA cookies.
So, SmallStuff will be screwed out of commissions for 9 RMPs.
Hmmm...that is the same number that the big site lost out on.
So, SmallStuff earns 81 CPAs at $100 each for the huge payday of $8100.
But they lost 9 CPAs worth $900 to them.
$900/$8100 = .11 (which is 11% of their revenue.
So much for everything "washing out" and being of "equal effect".
Oh, but wait a minute!
What about the RMPs that the big site converted on behalf of the SmallStuff site??? Right???
OK...well, there were 9 players which PNTA got screwed out of.
That would be 9 extra CPAs that SmallStuff gets, for a total of $900.
So, now SmallStuff gets $8100 plus $900, or the $9,000 they would have gotten originally if they did not lose the 10% of their conversions who visited the Big site (PNTA) first.
And the big site, PNTA, will also get 9 RMPS converted by the small site, for a nice $200 CPA each, for another $1800, so they will not lose anything either.
So, maybe PPP is right? Nobody loses? It all evens out in the wash?
Well, that requires a lot of assumptions.
First, big sites and small sites do not have the same conversion ratios.
Pokernews can offer all these fabulous Free Rolls, for example, and the free deposit money, for example, at Titan....and they just have more credibility and "stickiness."
So, let's assume that SmallStuff is only able to convert at a
20% rate.
Out of their 300 visitors, 60 will convert, and 6 of those will be credited to the big PNTA cookies.
So, 60 - 6 = 54 RMPs for $5400. They lost $600.
But, they are gaining 9 conversions from the big site, for $900,
so they are gaining more than they lost!
PPP is telling the truth, small sites can gain more.
But, the only way they can gain more than they lost is if their conversions by the big PNTA site truly are tracked to them.
And, we know that the big site PNTA is more likely to have special bonus codes, which they require the players to use in order to get those Prized World Series freerolls, etc.
And those bonus codes will override any cookies.
And therefore any talk of big sites converting players for small sites is really hypothetical, unless it is a level playing field and nobody has special bonus codes.
To the extent that the SmallStuff site does
not have their own bonus codes, they will lose out in the end.
If the big sites did *not* have special bonus codes, it would surely be in small sites' best interests to urge their visitors to go visit the big sites as quickly as possible, because the conversion rates would be higher there*!!!!!!
What a crazy business.
It is only natural for smaller sites to feel that they need every dime tracked to them that they have earned...
and, it is not such a bad idea....to just have everybody being rewarded for the sales that they truly closed upon....and give up sales commissions which they did not truly earn by closing the deal.
It is expecting a lot to say to small sites: trust in the chaos of the process that the big sites will convert for you at a higher rate to balance out the 11% of your income that you could lose if you do not have your own bonus codes or cookie-clearing instructions.
11% is a lot to risk for a SmallStuff site.
The big sites are only risking .3% of their income....they can afford it.
That is quite a disparity to trust to a chaotic, and unpredictable process.
Thus, In my opinion, PPP has managed to be right and wrong at the same time
Regarding the acrimonious tone to the posts, PPP was insulted by edmc, and his retort was relatively restrained...
But he has a lot of nerve calling Dave "rude and obnoxious" for just stating his opinion about the low blow, especially when PPP started the whole thing by accusing the OP of stealing from other affiliates.
That is kind of
rude and obnoxious behavior in and of itself.
Especially when the OP stated he was just trying to find a way to make sure that referring affiliates get the credit they deserve.
To state that the screwed up system will end up with them also getting credit which they do *not* deserve, so they should therefore just forget about it does not make it easier to accept.
Let's find a system truly based on "merit"....bonus codes for everybody sounds fair. Why won't the rooms allow this kind of level playing field?