Online poker legal within the next 6 months...

[gPowell]

I have to agree that with Doyles Room coming back into the States and some other rooms seriously starting to come out from the shadows there is a very positive momentum building!

[Randy]

Of course they'll use affiliates and have affiliate programs. How do you think they sell their hotel rooms? Through travel agents, hotel consolidators, and through affiliates.

Every business imaginable has an affiliate program. including Google and Yahoo. Anyone heard of Adsense? And Yahoo markets so many different products of theirs through an affiliate program that it's hard to keep up.

The sky isn't falling.

Originally Posted by the27offsuit.com

You have to understand if online poker and casinos are made legal , and major vegas and atlantic city hotels open online poker rooms , we will be out of business .

I mean who the hell would want to play at say absolute poker when they can go play at the palms online poker room .

And i really doubt these major players with ulimited advertising budgets will use affiliates , they might buy banner space on some main poker sites but thats about it .

[Beanie]

I wonder how much money Barry would wager on this at even odds?

I honestly can't think of a number I wouldn't wager against the 6 month figure. But I would probably stop at 20k.

I think there is momentum for a Congress vote but no way does Bush sign something legalizing gambling.

I sort of differ from you Randy. I think it is unknown and anything unknown is inherently bad IMO. I am not saying you aren't right I am just saying no one knows.

I also think the current poker rooms will be able to compete. There are many things to this, maybe a will detail them in a future blog. I do think lobbying every state would be cumbersome and that is one reason I don't see the big boys joining the fight.

[TheDonk]

I don't see the big rooms going away. I'm guessing that we'll see lots of consolidation, Party, Stars, FTP, and Harrahs buying up everyone else. Maybe we'll have 3 or 4 big guys, plus MSN and Yahoo. As far as Yahoo goes, I'm not sure I'd expect too much from them even though they're tapping in right now. The current rooms not only have several legs up on MSN and Yahoo right now, but they have a giant system of free advertising already built with us. They aren't just going to dump that.

Harrahs has said many times that they want in - in a big way. Thay have the might to become a major player - especially by buying out other sites. With that said, the internet is in it's own world outside of b & m. You think Harrahs can stick signs in their casinos and expect million of players to sign up online? No way. They're still going to have to compete, and banner ads all over the place isn't good enough either. They need our reviews, they need our opinions to sell their sites, and they'll have to pay us to do it. They can pay for banner ads that don't convert and don't contain any information, or they can join us and have a fighting chance.

Personally, I think we'll see bigger bonuses, and more aggressive marketing across the board. All of these things are good for us.

It might be a good time to start buying shares of publicly traded rooms. If the market does open up again, stock prices will skyrocket. When rooms get bought out, stock prices for both, the buyer and sellers stocks will skyrocket. This market reminds me of the dotcom market about 10 years ago.

TheDonk

[Randy]

The future is always unknown no matter what we do. My point is just that there is no reason to think that poker will be treated any differently from any other online industry, and every online industry I can think of has affiliate programs and affiliates. I think revshare and rakeback will disappear though, and CPA will become the standard affiliate model for poker. (In the event of legalization.)

I don't think Barry Greenstein is right about any kind of six month estimate either. That sounds like purely made-up, headline-getting stuff to me, but we'll see.

Originally Posted by Beanie

I wonder how much money Barry would wager on this at even odds?

I honestly can't think of a number I wouldn't wager against the 6 month figure. But I would probably stop at 20k.

I think there is momentum for a Congress vote but no way does Bush sign something legalizing gambling.

I sort of differ from you Randy. I think it is unknown and anything unknown is inherently bad IMO. I am not saying you aren't right I am just saying no one knows.

I also think the current poker rooms will be able to compete. There are many things to this, maybe a will detail them in a future blog. I do think lobbying every state would be cumbersome and that is one reason I don't see the big boys joining the fight.

[ozim]

Originally Posted by TheDonk

It might be a good time to start buying shares of publicly traded rooms. If the market does open up again, stock prices will skyrocket. When rooms get bought out, stock prices for both, the buyer and sellers stocks will skyrocket. This market reminds me of the dotcom market about 10 years ago.

It may be a good idea TheDonk. These shares haven't done too well in recent years:

Maybe someone heard of an investment fund specializing in e-gaming or at least having large part of its portfolio invested in the sector ?

[ozim]

Originally Posted by Randy

... I think revshare and rakeback will disappear though, and CPA will become the standard affiliate model for poker. (In the event of legalization.)...

May you evaluate on that Randy - why do you think so?

[TheDonk]

Originally Posted by ozim

Maybe someone heard of an investment fund specializing in e-gaming or at least having large part of its portfolio invested in the sector ?

Or how about if Barney Franks bill passes opening up all online gambling? Can you say "Pokerstars IPO" ? Can you imagine if they opened a casino and a sportsbook to all those players? Oh baby.

[Randy]

Basically, there is a legal theory that someone who shares in the "take" of a gambling operation (revshare of player losses or rake) is more of a "partner" than someone who just receives a flat referral fee per player. Licensing for operating gambling businesses is pretty strict in the USA, so a legalized climate would be more likely to result in companies making that distinction.

Originally Posted by ozim

May you evaluate on that Randy - why do you think so?

[bg]

Poker affiliates will not be going anywhere, only getting richer - much, much richer....

Small operators will merge.....major land based companies will compete with party, stars, ect....

Gambling is not accepted by everyone but GOOGLE is, I seriously doubt they will get into online gambling. You don't see them offering porn do you?